Pakistan’s quiet rooftop solar revolution is about to transform how the country uses electricity—especially in its industrial heartlands.
At the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, Aisha Moriani, Secretary of the Ministry of Climate Change and Pakistan’s lead negotiator, revealed that cities like Lahore, Faisalabad, and Sialkot are on track to experience something unprecedented next year: during certain hours of the day, their rooftop solar generation will fully offset—or even exceed—their need for grid electricity.
In simple terms, for a few bright hours, especially on sunny summer afternoons or industrial holidays, these cities may not “need” power from the national grid at all. This is what experts call “negative grid-linked demand”.
Dramatic shift due to massive surge in rooftop solar installations
This dramatic shift hasn’t happened overnight. It’s the result of a massive surge in rooftop solar installations, as households, factories, and small businesses try to protect themselves from frequent load-shedding and soaring electricity bills.
Pakistan is now the third-largest importer of solar panels in the world, and in recent months, the share of solar in its power mix has even outpaced that of neighboring China in relative growth terms.
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On the ground, this is visible everywhere: shop rooftops endowed with panels, textile mills in Faisalabad cutting costs with onsite solar, and middle-class families in Lahore finally finding some relief from punishing monthly bills. For many, solar is no longer an “eco-choice” but, it’s considered to be a survival tool.
But this boom comes with a complicated twist
As more consumers convert part of their demand to solar, grid electricity sales drop, squeezing the revenues of already debt-ridden power utilities. The system still needs to maintain power plants, transmission lines, and backup capacity for evenings and cloudy days — but with fewer units sold to spread those costs over.
To address this, the government is working on new tariff structures for large solar users, especially commercial and industrial consumers. The idea is to ensure that even those who rely heavily on rooftop solar contribute fairly to maintaining the grid, which they still depend on at night or in low-sun conditions.
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Moriani noted that grid-linked demand is still expected to grow by 3–4% this year, but at a slower pace than in the past. Next year, overall consumption may rise, yet solar adoption will likely keep that growth in check.
The solar surge is also reshaping Pakistan’s gas import strategy. With daytime demand falling and seasonal patterns changing, Pakistan is pushing to renegotiate LNG contracts — seeking lower prices, more flexible delivery windows and even fewer cargoes, particularly from its top supplier, Qatar. Some shipments from Italy’s Eni have already been canceled.
As Moriani put it, the aim of Pakistan is not to deepen its dependence on imported LNG, but to align energy imports with fiscal realities and real demand. The broader aim is clear:
a power system that is cleaner, cheaper, and more resilient — even if getting there means a difficult transition for traditional utilities.