For the first time in many years, Pakistan is heading into the Rabi cropping season with record water reserves in its dams and barrages, a development that has raised hopes for better agricultural output after the flood-related damages during the outgoing Kharif season. Officials keep on saying that the improved water situation will particularly provide benefits to the wheat, the country’s most important winter crop.
Historic Storage Levels Achieved
Currently, reservoirs across the country are holding over 13.1 million acre-feet (MAF) of water, which is nearly 99 percent of their maximum capacity of 13.3MAF. This is a significant improvement compared to last year when storage barely crossed 11.3MAF at this time.
At the heart of this achievement is the Tarbela Dam, which has maintained its full conservation level of 1,550 feet since August. In comparison, Tarbela had peaked at 1,548 feet in 2023 and 1,549 feet in 2024. The Mangla Dam has also performed better this year, standing at 1,239.6 feet against its maximum of 1,242 feet, translating into 7.1MAF of storage compared to just 5.9MAF last year.
Meanwhile, Chashma Barrage has touched a record level of 649 feet, surpassing its previous peaks of 645 feet in 2023 and 646 feet in 2024.
Read more: Pakistan’s cotton production surged by 40% to 2.004 million bales despite floods
Boost for Agriculture
The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) estimates that water availability for the upcoming Rabi season could reach 35–36MAF, close to the total requirement of 37–38MAF under the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991. This means farmers will likely encounter only a minimal and manageable shortage.
With irrigation supplies looking healthier, wheat — which is forming the backbone of Pakistan’s food security — is expected to benefit the most. Other major Rabi crops such as
- Gram
- Lentils
- Tobacco
- Rapeseed
- Barley
- Mustard
These crops are also likely to receive timely water supplies, easing concerns about food inflation and shortages in the coming year.
Caution Amid Optimism
Despite the upbeat outlook, officials have flagged a few concerns. Large tracts of farmland in Punjab remain covered with floodwater, and instead of the usual fertile silt that floods leave behind, heavy sand deposits have been reported. This could affect soil productivity unless proper rehabilitation is carried out.
Sindh, in particular, is still struggling to recover from floods, which is why it has yet to place its usual water requests for Rabi crops. Irsa’s technical and advisory committees will finalize allocations once floodwaters recede.
Looking Ahead
Since April, around 24MAF of water has already flowed into the sea, nearly double the combined storage capacity of Tarbela and Mangla. While this indicates gaps in water management, experts keep on believing that the current carryover offers Pakistan a rare opportunity to stabilize agricultural output and ensure food security.
If managed wisely, the record water storage could help the farmers make up for the losses suffered during Kharif and provide a much-required boost to the economy in the months ahead.