Pakistan’s population has crossed an estimated 257 million, placing it firmly among the world’s most populous countries. While fertility and growth rates are gradually declining, the sheer size of the population means the country continues to add millions of people each year, as per recent demographic data compiled by the US Census Bureau and the United Nations.
With a population density of around 333 people per square kilometre, pressure on land, infrastructure, and public services is becoming increasingly visible. Roads, schools, hospitals, and housing are already struggling to keep pace, particularly in large cities where rapid urbanisation is reshaping daily life.
Pakistan’s annual population growth rate has slowed to 1.82 per cent, lower than in previous decades but still high enough to keep total numbers rising for years to come. The total fertility rate has declined to 3.25 births per woman, a notable drop from the past but still well above the replacement level of 2.1.
This gap ensures continued population growth due to what demographers call “population momentum,” driven by a large base of young people.
At the same time, progress in health and human development remains uneven. Life expectancy at birth is estimated at 60.5 years, one of the lowest figures in South Asia. Child health indicators are also worrying, with under-five mortality standing at nearly 65 deaths per 1,000 live births. These figures keep on reflecting long-standing weaknesses in maternal healthcare, nutrition, disease prevention and access to basic medical services.
Read more: With 33 million population, Karachi will become world’s 5th largest city in 25 years
How Pakistan Compares with Its Neighbours
A regional comparison highlights the scale of Pakistan’s challenge. India, now the world’s most populous country, has already fallen below replacement fertility and is shifting its focus toward ageing and productivity. Bangladesh, despite extreme population density, has sharply reduced fertility and child mortality via sustained investment in female education and primary healthcare.
In contrast, Pakistan continues to lag behind on key social indicators despite having more land and resources per person. Afghanistan, meanwhile, remains caught in a high-growth, high-mortality cycle, resembling Pakistan’s demographic profile from several decades ago.
A Young Nation Under Strain
Pakistan’s population is mostly consisted of young people, which means pressure on education systems, job markets, transport and housing will intensify in the coming decades. Economists warn that without sustained economic growth and large-scale job creation; this youth bulge could become a source of instability rather than opportunity.
An Unfinished Transition
Experts keep on producing arguments that Pakistan stands at a critical turning point. Fertility is falling, but not fast enough. Health outcomes are improving, but too slowly. Without serious investment in girls’ education, reproductive health, nutrition and employment, the country risks entering the future with both weak human capital and mounting demographic pressure.
The next two decades, analysts say, will decide whether Pakistan turns its population into an asset by making the young generation skilled enough to be productive and contribute to the economy of the country, or a long-term liability.